{
  "title": "UNGA voting alignment trend, 2000–2025",
  "window": {
    "start": 2000,
    "end": 2025
  },
  "source_file": "data/annual_scores (4).csv",
  "method": {
    "average": "unweighted mean of the pillar score across all UN member states with a non-null value in that year",
    "smoothed": "centered 3-year rolling mean (min_periods=1)",
    "trendline": "OLS linear fit on (year, world_avg) using only years with data",
    "country_count_caveat": "country count varies year-to-year as members are admitted or have missing votes; AFG and VEN are absent in 2025"
  },
  "notes": [
    "Year 1964 is intentionally absent from the dataset (UN Article 19 crisis); falls outside this window.",
    "Pillar 2 'Bloc Alignment' uses the project's bloc definitions; see .github/supabase-schema.md for details.",
    "All values rounded to 2 decimals for chart binding."
  ],
  "charts": {
    "pillar_1": {
      "pillar": "Pillar 1 — Internal Alignment",
      "trendline": {
        "slope_per_year": -0.2155,
        "intercept": 506.4774,
        "value_at_start_year": 75.51,
        "value_at_end_year": 70.12,
        "total_change_over_window": -5.39
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2000,
          "average": 65.99,
          "smoothed_3y": 72.71,
          "trendline": 75.51
        },
        {
          "year": 2001,
          "average": 79.42,
          "smoothed_3y": 74.17,
          "trendline": 75.29
        },
        {
          "year": 2002,
          "average": 77.09,
          "smoothed_3y": 79.24,
          "trendline": 75.08
        },
        {
          "year": 2003,
          "average": 81.21,
          "smoothed_3y": 77.74,
          "trendline": 74.86
        },
        {
          "year": 2004,
          "average": 74.92,
          "smoothed_3y": 78.09,
          "trendline": 74.64
        },
        {
          "year": 2005,
          "average": 78.16,
          "smoothed_3y": 73.9,
          "trendline": 74.43
        },
        {
          "year": 2006,
          "average": 68.61,
          "smoothed_3y": 72.89,
          "trendline": 74.21
        },
        {
          "year": 2007,
          "average": 71.89,
          "smoothed_3y": 73.18,
          "trendline": 74.0
        },
        {
          "year": 2008,
          "average": 79.04,
          "smoothed_3y": 76.69,
          "trendline": 73.78
        },
        {
          "year": 2009,
          "average": 79.14,
          "smoothed_3y": 77.15,
          "trendline": 73.57
        },
        {
          "year": 2010,
          "average": 73.25,
          "smoothed_3y": 72.97,
          "trendline": 73.35
        },
        {
          "year": 2011,
          "average": 66.52,
          "smoothed_3y": 67.19,
          "trendline": 73.14
        },
        {
          "year": 2012,
          "average": 61.81,
          "smoothed_3y": 69.39,
          "trendline": 72.92
        },
        {
          "year": 2013,
          "average": 79.84,
          "smoothed_3y": 71.97,
          "trendline": 72.71
        },
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "average": 74.26,
          "smoothed_3y": 75.12,
          "trendline": 72.49
        },
        {
          "year": 2015,
          "average": 71.25,
          "smoothed_3y": 73.64,
          "trendline": 72.27
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "average": 75.42,
          "smoothed_3y": 74.53,
          "trendline": 72.06
        },
        {
          "year": 2017,
          "average": 76.92,
          "smoothed_3y": 75.11,
          "trendline": 71.84
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "average": 72.98,
          "smoothed_3y": 73.48,
          "trendline": 71.63
        },
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "average": 70.53,
          "smoothed_3y": 69.78,
          "trendline": 71.41
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "average": 65.82,
          "smoothed_3y": 62.87,
          "trendline": 71.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "average": 52.24,
          "smoothed_3y": 61.7,
          "trendline": 70.98
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "average": 67.03,
          "smoothed_3y": 65.26,
          "trendline": 70.77
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "average": 76.51,
          "smoothed_3y": 73.95,
          "trendline": 70.55
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "average": 78.29,
          "smoothed_3y": 76.59,
          "trendline": 70.33
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "average": 74.98,
          "smoothed_3y": 76.64,
          "trendline": 70.12
        }
      ]
    },
    "pillar_2": {
      "pillar": "Pillar 2 — Bloc Alignment",
      "trendline": {
        "slope_per_year": -0.1004,
        "intercept": 294.9212,
        "value_at_start_year": 94.06,
        "value_at_end_year": 91.55,
        "total_change_over_window": -2.51
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2000,
          "average": 94.72,
          "smoothed_3y": 94.39,
          "trendline": 94.06
        },
        {
          "year": 2001,
          "average": 94.06,
          "smoothed_3y": 94.01,
          "trendline": 93.96
        },
        {
          "year": 2002,
          "average": 93.24,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.49,
          "trendline": 93.86
        },
        {
          "year": 2003,
          "average": 93.16,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.34,
          "trendline": 93.76
        },
        {
          "year": 2004,
          "average": 93.62,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.28,
          "trendline": 93.66
        },
        {
          "year": 2005,
          "average": 93.07,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.63,
          "trendline": 93.56
        },
        {
          "year": 2006,
          "average": 94.21,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.89,
          "trendline": 93.46
        },
        {
          "year": 2007,
          "average": 94.38,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.84,
          "trendline": 93.36
        },
        {
          "year": 2008,
          "average": 92.93,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.66,
          "trendline": 93.26
        },
        {
          "year": 2009,
          "average": 93.69,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.23,
          "trendline": 93.16
        },
        {
          "year": 2010,
          "average": 93.09,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.27,
          "trendline": 93.06
        },
        {
          "year": 2011,
          "average": 93.04,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.91,
          "trendline": 92.96
        },
        {
          "year": 2012,
          "average": 92.59,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.76,
          "trendline": 92.86
        },
        {
          "year": 2013,
          "average": 92.66,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.47,
          "trendline": 92.76
        },
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "average": 92.15,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.47,
          "trendline": 92.66
        },
        {
          "year": 2015,
          "average": 92.61,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.11,
          "trendline": 92.56
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "average": 91.56,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.42,
          "trendline": 92.46
        },
        {
          "year": 2017,
          "average": 93.1,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.29,
          "trendline": 92.36
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "average": 92.21,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.7,
          "trendline": 92.26
        },
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "average": 92.79,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.56,
          "trendline": 92.16
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "average": 92.67,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.5,
          "trendline": 92.06
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "average": 92.04,
          "smoothed_3y": 91.2,
          "trendline": 91.96
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "average": 88.87,
          "smoothed_3y": 90.5,
          "trendline": 91.85
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "average": 90.58,
          "smoothed_3y": 90.04,
          "trendline": 91.75
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "average": 90.68,
          "smoothed_3y": 92.19,
          "trendline": 91.65
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "average": 95.31,
          "smoothed_3y": 93.0,
          "trendline": 91.55
        }
      ]
    },
    "pillar_3": {
      "pillar": "Pillar 3 — Global Alignment",
      "trendline": {
        "slope_per_year": -0.1586,
        "intercept": 405.5092,
        "value_at_start_year": 88.37,
        "value_at_end_year": 84.41,
        "total_change_over_window": -3.96
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "year": 2000,
          "average": 90.41,
          "smoothed_3y": 88.49,
          "trendline": 88.37
        },
        {
          "year": 2001,
          "average": 86.56,
          "smoothed_3y": 87.9,
          "trendline": 88.21
        },
        {
          "year": 2002,
          "average": 86.72,
          "smoothed_3y": 86.75,
          "trendline": 88.05
        },
        {
          "year": 2003,
          "average": 86.97,
          "smoothed_3y": 87.12,
          "trendline": 87.9
        },
        {
          "year": 2004,
          "average": 87.67,
          "smoothed_3y": 87.49,
          "trendline": 87.74
        },
        {
          "year": 2005,
          "average": 87.83,
          "smoothed_3y": 88.31,
          "trendline": 87.58
        },
        {
          "year": 2006,
          "average": 89.44,
          "smoothed_3y": 88.92,
          "trendline": 87.42
        },
        {
          "year": 2007,
          "average": 89.47,
          "smoothed_3y": 89.09,
          "trendline": 87.26
        },
        {
          "year": 2008,
          "average": 88.35,
          "smoothed_3y": 87.88,
          "trendline": 87.1
        },
        {
          "year": 2009,
          "average": 85.82,
          "smoothed_3y": 87.0,
          "trendline": 86.94
        },
        {
          "year": 2010,
          "average": 86.82,
          "smoothed_3y": 86.34,
          "trendline": 86.79
        },
        {
          "year": 2011,
          "average": 86.38,
          "smoothed_3y": 86.48,
          "trendline": 86.63
        },
        {
          "year": 2012,
          "average": 86.23,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.93,
          "trendline": 86.47
        },
        {
          "year": 2013,
          "average": 85.17,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.62,
          "trendline": 86.31
        },
        {
          "year": 2014,
          "average": 85.45,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.09,
          "trendline": 86.15
        },
        {
          "year": 2015,
          "average": 84.63,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.01,
          "trendline": 85.99
        },
        {
          "year": 2016,
          "average": 84.95,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.41,
          "trendline": 85.83
        },
        {
          "year": 2017,
          "average": 86.63,
          "smoothed_3y": 86.24,
          "trendline": 85.68
        },
        {
          "year": 2018,
          "average": 87.12,
          "smoothed_3y": 86.56,
          "trendline": 85.52
        },
        {
          "year": 2019,
          "average": 85.92,
          "smoothed_3y": 86.68,
          "trendline": 85.36
        },
        {
          "year": 2020,
          "average": 87.01,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.73,
          "trendline": 85.2
        },
        {
          "year": 2021,
          "average": 84.26,
          "smoothed_3y": 83.53,
          "trendline": 85.04
        },
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "average": 79.33,
          "smoothed_3y": 81.85,
          "trendline": 84.88
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "average": 81.97,
          "smoothed_3y": 81.15,
          "trendline": 84.72
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "average": 82.16,
          "smoothed_3y": 85.65,
          "trendline": 84.57
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "average": 92.84,
          "smoothed_3y": 87.5,
          "trendline": 84.41
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}